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Fed funds futures priced a more than one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting, while prediction markets put it nearer 25%. The Fed was divided between hawks worried about inflation from Iran-war bottlenecks and officials who wanted to wait.
Commentators said a hawkish hold was the most likely compromise.
A surprise hike would likely extend the dollar rally, which weighs on dollar-priced ag commodities and can reduce US export competitiveness. Fertilizer and energy costs remain elevated because of the Iran war.
profarmer.comBill WattsJul 29, 2026After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
