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The US dollar index (DXY) has risen about 15% in 2022 and sits at a 20-year high against a basket of six major currencies. Aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes lifted US bond yields, drawing investor capital into dollar assets, while energy-driven slowdowns in Europe and Asia added safe-haven demand.
A stronger dollar makes US commodity exports more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to pressure dollar-priced grains, oilseeds and meals. It also raises import costs for feed-importing countries with weaker currencies.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
