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StoneX's weekly FX outlook says the dollar will track US inflation and retail sales data, with markets pricing the first Federal Reserve cut for May or June. In Brazil, the central bank minutes pointed to 50bp Selic cuts, while Congress negotiations could postpone payroll tax changes and worsen Brazil's fiscal outlook.
A stronger dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices, while a weaker real can make Brazilian soybean and corn exports more competitive.
stonex.comStoneX Intelligence BrazilFeb 14, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
