Indonesia will keep subsidizing biodiesel through the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund despite cutting the palm export levy that funds the subsidy. The fund collected $992 million through November 2018, about 40% above expectations.
It expects 2019 revenue near 2018 levels if palm prices hold steady.
Continued biodiesel subsidies keep domestic palm demand supported, which partly offsets the export supply increase from the levy cut. This limits downside for palm oil prices.
After 513 past neutral policy events, PALMOIL moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.