Indonesia's government injected about $186 million into the Indonesian Oil Palm Estate Fund to keep the B30 palm biodiesel blending mandate funded, and raised the CPO export levy to $55/mt for May. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said businesses would contribute about $51 million through the higher levy.
Biodiesel producers reported lower orders for May as the palm oil/gasoil spread widened sharply.
A wider palm-gasoil spread makes palm biodiesel costlier to subsidize, so the funding fix supports domestic palm demand while the higher export levy trims Indonesian export competitiveness, a mixed signal for palm oil prices and for soy oil and other vegetable oil substitutes.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.