
GAPKI expects Indonesia's 2022 palm oil exports to fall only about 1 million tons to 33.2 million tons, despite a new rule requiring exporters to allocate 20% of shipments to the local market. Palm oil prices extended a rise to a fresh record after the policy was announced.
The domestic allocation rule may disrupt February shipments but is expected to have limited effect on overseas supply, so the price impact should be modest.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.