
The Indonesia Biodiesel Producers Association estimates biodiesel exports of up to 2 million kilolitres in 2019 in an optimistic scenario, or 1 to 1.2 million in a pessimistic one, versus 1.78 million last year. The pessimistic case reflects possible EU countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel.
Lower Indonesian biodiesel exports to the EU would leave more palm oil in the domestic market, where a rising B20 mandate absorbs supply, so the net effect on palm oil prices is mixed.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.