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The Indonesian biodiesel association's pessimistic scenario assumes tighter EU channels for Indonesian biodiesel, which could cut 2019 exports to 1 to 1.2 million kilolitres. Its optimistic case relies on the B30 mandate, with a road test targeted for July.
Weaker export demand from the EU would shift more palm oil into the domestic biodiesel market, leaving the price effect dependent on B30 implementation.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.