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StoneX's analysis of the USDA quarterly stocks report called soybeans bearish after ending stocks of 256 million bushels came in well above the trade's 174 million estimate. It said the USDA raised the old-crop soybean yield to 51.0 bushels per acre and that wheat was bullish.
The large soybean carryout adds supply to the market, which is likely to pressure soybean and meal prices, while soybean oil remains supported by tight vegetable oil supplies.
stonex.comCraig TurnerSep 30, 2021After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
