
USDA raised its 2016 soybean crop forecast about 3.5% to 4.2 billion bushels, above August estimates and surprising traders. Corn production was trimmed to 15.09 billion bushels but remained above trade expectations.
Soybean ending stocks were raised to 365 million bushels.
A larger-than-expected soybean crop and higher ending stocks add bearish pressure on soybeans and soybean meal. Corn supplies also remain comfortable despite the small cut.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.