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The July WASDE report came in bearish against trade expectations, with corn down 40 cents, soybeans 60 cents, and wheat 45 cents. Crude oil fell about $8 to $96 as broader markets sold off.
Ongoing Black Sea grain corridor talks in Istanbul were also flagged as the key wheat wildcard.
A bearish USDA surprise and falling energy prices lower feed grain and oilseed values, while the prospect of Black Sea exports resuming would add supply to the wheat market in autumn.
stonex.comCraig TurnerJul 12, 2022After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE was read as bearish against trade expectations, with corn down about 40 cents and crude down sharply.
