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The World Bank forecasts urea prices will rise nearly 60% to $675 per MT in 2026, from $423 in 2025. That would be the highest level since the $700 per MT peak in April 2022.
A sharp urea rally, driven by Gulf supply disruption, raises nitrogen fertilizer costs for corn and wheat growers and tends to lift feed grain prices over time.
businessmirror.com.phOct 29, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
