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JPMorgan projects global food prices could rise 5% in the first half of 2027, citing fertilizer shortages and dry weather. Middle East urea prices have roughly doubled to $800 per ton as disruption through the Strait of Hormuz raises ammonia and gas input costs.
Serbian producers are assessing the risk to spring planting.
Higher urea costs and the Strait of Hormuz risk keep nitrogen input prices elevated, which supports feed grain costs for the coming season.
srpske.rsBranko PetrovićAug 30, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
