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India's fertilizer tender bought urea at about $1,000 a ton, roughly double the price paid two months earlier. The price jump was attributed to the Iran war shock.
Heavy Indian buying at these levels is likely to lift spot urea prices globally and squeeze smaller buyers in Asia and Africa. Higher nitrogen costs also feed into grain production costs.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.