Global fishmeal production dropped 49% year on year in the first seven months of 2026 as El Niño-linked warm waters and juvenile fish disrupted Peru's anchoveta season, with fish oil output also falling 30%. IFFO says Asian fishing activity in Q4 may partially offset the South American shortfall.
The European Feed Manufacturers Federation (FEFAC) has projected a soybean meal supply gap of at least 5 million tonnes in the EU for the 2026-27 marketing year, driven by drought, Black Sea trade disruptions, and sourcing constraints tied to the EU Deforestation Regulation. The federation estimates the combined cost impact on the EU feed and livestock sector could reach approximately EUR 1.4 billion and has called on EU institutions to act urgently to protect feed security.
Grain futures moved higher overnight on September 16, 2026, led by a surging soybean meal market that reached a 2.5-year high. Corn, soybeans, and wheat also posted gains, while market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate decision. Ongoing heavy rainfall in the Corn Belt, elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, and developing U.S.-China trade talks added further context to commodity market moves.
A rapidly intensifying El Niño is tightening water levels at the Panama Canal and prompting precautionary draft restrictions, according to an analysis by agribusiness consultant Alê Delara published by CZ App on 17 September 2026. The weather event could raise US Gulf-to-Asia shipping costs, eroding US soybean and corn competitiveness and redirecting Asian demand toward Brazil — but the same climate risks that could lift Brazilian export premiums also threaten its domestic harvest and push up farm input costs.
The USDA's September WASDE trimmed 2026/27 US corn ending stocks and slashed production forecasts, while soybean ending stocks edged lower on stronger export demand. Wheat balances were broadly stable. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its East-West pipeline and record-high diesel cracks are adding freight and energy cost pressure that feed manufacturers and ingredient traders will need to monitor closely.