Grain Futures Rise Overnight as Soybean Meal Hits 2.5-Year High; Fed Rate Decision in Focus

Grain futures opened firmer in overnight trading on September 16, 2026, with soybean meal leading the complex after hitting its highest level in two and a half years, according to Pro Farmer's morning market report.

At 6:00 a.m. CT, December corn was up three-quarters of a cent, while November soybeans were 10¼ cents higher. December soybean meal rose $1.60 to reach a 2.5-year high, and December bean oil was 46 points higher. Both December soft red winter (SRW) and hard red winter (HRW) wheat were 2½ cents higher, Pro Farmer reported.

Pro Farmer attributed the soybean complex's strength primarily to meal: "The surging meal market is leading soybeans higher." Corn and winter wheat futures were described as pausing mid-week, in part due to anticipation of the bond market's reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision expected later that afternoon.

The Malaysian palm oil futures market was closed for a public holiday. The U.S. dollar index was near steady, while October Nymex WTI crude oil was trading around $103.50 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.00%.

Heavy Rains Continue in Parts of Corn Belt

The National Weather Service warned of ongoing heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding affecting key agricultural regions. According to Pro Farmer's report of the NWS forecast, a slow-moving frontal system was expected to keep thunderstorms active across the north-central Plains and Missouri Valley, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding anticipated over northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The threat was forecast to shift toward the Northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley through Friday.

Pro Farmer noted a sharp temperature contrast: high temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s were expected north of the front in the central Plains and Midwest, "compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front across the southern Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley."

Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Rates

The Federal Reserve was widely expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on September 16, which Pro Farmer described as "the first rate hike since 2023." The report cited inflation remaining "well above target" and the energy shock stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict as factors weighing on the outlook.

U.S. headline inflation held at 3.4% year-on-year in August, while core inflation was at 2.4%, according to Pro Farmer. Diesel prices had risen to $6 a gallon, adding further pressure to the inflation outlook. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was scheduled to hold a press conference following the decision.

Crude Oil Retreats on Inventory Build

Nymex crude oil futures retreated to around $104 per barrel, pulling back after two consecutive sessions of gains. The American Petroleum Institute reported "a 7.1 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, alongside higher gasoline and distillate inventories," according to Pro Farmer, with official government data due later that day.

Supply concerns remained elevated. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remained offline following attacks. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the outage "should last only a matter of days," Pro Farmer reported. Iran-backed Houthi militants were described as advancing toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while intensifying attacks on Saudi targets and regional shipping routes, with the disruption reportedly prompting Saudi Aramco to delay some deliveries to European customers.

In response to the pipeline shutdown, Saudi Aramco was reported to have sold approximately 20 million barrels to Asian refiners for near-term pickup from outside the Strait of Hormuz. Pro Farmer cited Bloomberg reporting that buyers included "Chinese state-owned and independent processors, and other importers in East Asia."

U.S.-China Trade Talks Advance Ahead of Summit

Prospects for extending the U.S.-China trade truce were described as solidifying ahead of a planned leaders' summit. Pro Farmer cited Bloomberg reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would meet his Chinese counterpart, He Lifeng, the weekend before the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping scheduled for September 24 in Washington. Discussions reportedly included "slashing tariffs on goods including American energy and agricultural products."

The report noted that "expectations for the summit remain tempered by China's relations with Iran and Russia as well as competition over leading-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence," citing Bloomberg.

Livestock Markets: Cattle Pull Back from Highs, Hogs at 15-Month Low

October live cattle fell $1.55 to $220.70 on Tuesday, having hit a four-week high earlier in the session. November feeder cattle lost $3.875 to $328.90, also after touching a five-week high. Pro Farmer attributed the pullback to "routine profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term specs and corrective action following recent good price gains." USDA cash cattle data for the prior week showed an average of $222.82, up $3.76 from the previous week's average of $219.06, Pro Farmer reported.

October lean hogs fell $0.525 to $79.075, hitting a 15-month low on Tuesday. Pro Farmer cited "more technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation" as drivers, with the near-term chart posture described as having "quickly changed from price-friendly to firmly bearish." The latest CME lean hog index was down 73 cents to $87.21, and the national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price for Tuesday was $85.80.