El Niño Drives 49% Plunge in Global Fishmeal Output in 2026
Global fishmeal production dropped 49% year on year in the first seven months of 2026 as El Niño-linked warm waters and juvenile fish disrupted Peru's anchoveta season, with fish oil output also falling 30%. IFFO says Asian fishing activity in Q4 may partially offset the South American shortfall.
Global fishmeal production fell sharply in the first seven months of 2026, with output down 49% year on year as El Niño conditions severely curtailed fishing activity in South America, according to data from marine ingredients body IFFO.
Fish oil production also declined over the same period, dropping 30%, tightening the availability of two key inputs for aquaculture feed worldwide.
Peru — which normally accounts for about 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production — was the primary driver of the shortfall. The country's first North-Central anchoveta season of 2026 was repeatedly halted by warm water conditions and a high presence of juvenile fish. Authorities set a quota of 1.91 million tonnes for the season, but fishing was suspended on June 10 with only around a quarter of that quota having been landed.
Chile also contributed to the regional shortfall, while weaker catches in parts of Africa and Northern Europe added further pressure on global output.
The disruption is particularly consequential for the salmon farming sector. Fishmeal and fish oil remain high-value components of salmon feed, even as producers have increased their use of vegetable-based and other alternative ingredients.
IFFO's market research director Enrico Bachis said there was some prospect of recovery later in the year, pointing to countries including China, India, and Oman as regions where peak fishing seasons fall in the final quarter. "The reduced fishmeal and fish oil supply from South America might be offset by some of the regions in Asia that have their peak fishing season in the last quarter of the year," Bachis said.
China resumed domestic fishmeal and fish oil production in August, though IFFO cautioned that the availability of raw material remained uncertain. Chinese aquafeed demand has entered its seasonal peak, but overall fishmeal consumption in China remains below last year's level, weighed down by high farming costs and softer demand from some aquaculture species as well as the pig sector.
Prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the editorial team.
