Philippine corn production is projected to fall 14.4% to 2.08 million tonnes following typhoon damage, with El Niño conditions forecast to intensify into late 2026. The supply squeeze is accelerating feed-industry interest in drought-tolerant millet as a partial corn substitute, while European and Black Sea export prices remain broadly stable.
A series of typhoons in the Philippines has reduced July–September 2026 corn production by an estimated 14.4%, tightening regional feed grain availability and pushing up input cost risk for Southeast Asian feed manufacturers. CBOT December 2026 corn futures are trading around 529 USc/bu, while buyers consider alternative grains including millet.
Italy's soft wheat flour exports rose nearly 15% year on year in the first half of 2026, with the United States becoming the largest buyer after a 38% surge in imports, even as Black Sea wheat prices remain subdued and global grain benchmarks stay under pressure.
Tunisia's state grains agency has purchased around 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/tonne C&F for October–December shipment, setting a clear pricing floor for Mediterranean destinations and limiting near-term downside for Black Sea and EU export origins.
Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 675 introduces mandatory producer-register verification for rapeseed exporters from 1 July 2026 and soybean exporters from 1 September 2026, replacing chamber-of-commerce certificates as the basis for export-duty exemptions. The change raises working-capital and administrative costs for traders and is already contributing to a modest convergence of Ukrainian rapeseed prices toward EU benchmarks.
Chicago corn futures rose on 21 September 2026, driven by trader positioning ahead of US–China talks that could unlock new Chinese grain purchases and by persistent Black Sea supply uncertainties. Gains were broad-based but moderate, with the market still awaiting concrete outcomes from the summit.
Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Pakistan's Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has tendered for 750,000 tonnes of 2026-crop milling wheat on CFR Karachi/Gwadar terms at around USD 320–325 per tonne, but the high landed cost of imports — compounded by freight, port charges, and currency weakness — is expected to support rather than ease domestic wheat prices. Global benchmark prices from Ukraine, the EU, and the US have softened modestly in September, but analysts note Pakistan's firmness is driven by internal cost and currency dynamics rather than global supply tightness.
Chicago December wheat futures settled lower on September 21, 2026, but a combination of solid US export sales and persistent Black Sea supply disruption risks is preventing a deeper price correction, according to CMB News.
International corn markets are navigating a tug-of-war between a projected record 66 million tonne Argentine maize harvest for 2026/27 and near-term European Union supply tightness driven by Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. CBOT futures softened on profit-taking ahead of a U.S.–China summit, while Euronext corn held firm on constrained Black Sea inflows and elevated EU import demand.
Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Black Sea and Red Sea are compelling wheat importers across Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa to source from more expensive origins such as the United States, Baltic states, Romania, Argentina, India, and Australia. Higher war-risk insurance premiums and freight costs are keeping physical wheat prices structurally elevated even as futures benchmarks have eased slightly from late-August highs, according to CMB News.