Italian Soft Wheat Flour Exports Surge 15% as US Demand Drives Premium Growth

Italy's soft wheat flour exports jumped sharply in the first half of 2026, with the United States emerging as the top destination, underscoring divergent dynamics in global wheat markets: robust downstream demand for premium milled products stands in contrast to weak underlying grain prices driven by ample Black Sea and European supplies.

US Leads Export Surge

According to CMB News, in January–June 2026, Italy's soft wheat flour exports rose nearly 15% year on year to 202,650 tonnes, with the United States overtaking other destinations after recording a 38% surge in imports. Other major markets also expanded: exports to Spain grew 23%, Germany 11%, and France 9%, reflecting broad European and transatlantic appetite for Italian flour. CMB News projects that if current momentum holds, Italy's full-year soft wheat flour exports could approach 400,000 tonnes, up from approximately 362,000 tonnes in 2025.

Industry representatives cited by CMB News point to premium end-use segments — particularly pizzerias and confectionery — as the principal growth drivers, supported by the technological sophistication of Italian mills. This demand profile requires consistent, high-quality soft wheat, anchoring milling demand even when base grain markets are weak.

Durum wheat semolina exports also advanced, reaching approximately 142,000 tonnes in 2025, nearly 8% higher than the prior year, suggesting structural strength in demand for Italian wheat-based ingredients across both bread and pasta supply chains.

Black Sea and Global Prices Remain Soft

Physical wheat prices across key origins remain under pressure. CMB News reports Ukrainian milling wheat with protein minimum 11.50% is indicated at EUR 0.16 per kg FCA Kyiv and EUR 0.17 per kg FCA Odesa, while Ukrainian wheat grade 3 stands at around EUR 0.157 per kg CPT Odesa. German feed wheat (moisture max 14%) is quoted at EUR 0.245 per kg EXW Drentwede as of September 22.

On futures markets, CMB News reports CBOT December 2026 wheat was trading around USD 7.08½ per bushel on September 24, 2026, described as under pressure as traders weigh Black Sea ceasefire discussions, a generally favorable European crop outlook, and subdued import demand.

Supply Fundamentals Broadly Comfortable

CMB News describes fundamentals as broadly comfortable, with ample exportable supplies in the Black Sea, EU, and North America. The report notes that Italian mills benefit from this environment by securing high-quality wheat at competitive prices to service their fast-growing export pipeline. USDA is cited as still expecting robust seaborne wheat trade in 2026/27, with Russia and Canada maintaining significant export roles alongside the EU and the United States.

On weather, CMB News notes that precipitation in the US Plains and Canadian Prairies is improving topsoil moisture for 2026/27 winter wheat planting, while active weather patterns and mostly adequate soil moisture support early fieldwork in Europe. The Black Sea region has seen relatively drier stretches but without major production threats. The report concludes that no acute weather shock is currently offsetting the bearish effect of strong supply.