Australia's Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has briefed stakeholders on the EU Deforestation Regulation, which is now confirmed to take effect from 31 December 2026 after two consecutive 12-month delays. Australian beef and lamb exporters shipping product from October 2026 onwards must comply with the new rules, with geolocation of supply properties being the primary requirement for Australia's "low-risk" country classification.
Agricultural commodity futures posted sharply divergent results in the week ending 25 September 2026, with November soybeans gaining 15½ cents to $13.19 per bushel and November feeder cattle surging nearly $14, while wheat contracts fell as much as 27¾ cents. China trade developments, harvest-season supply pressure, and commodity-specific fundamentals drove the split outcomes, according to a weekly market analysis published by Ag Bull on 26 September 2026.
Ukrainian corn FOB and FCA prices at Odesa edged lower on 24 September 2026 as active Black Sea export flows kept seller competition intense, while French FOB corn firmed and German EXW values held broadly steady. CMB News expects mostly stable to mildly softer indications across Brazil, Germany and Ukraine over the next three days.
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is reviewing broader use of millet in animal feed rations to reduce the country's dependence on corn as a very strong El Niño, projected to persist into the first half of 2027, raises the risk of drought-related supply shocks. While corn remains the dominant feed grain, any large-scale millet adoption could gradually temper growth in Philippine corn import demand, a development international exporters are beginning to monitor.
CBOT soybean futures eased modestly on 23 September 2026, with soybean oil leading declines and meal outperforming, as traders consolidated recent gains ahead of a key U.S.–China diplomatic summit. Ukrainian FOB prices slipped while basis held firm on below-average yields and Black Sea risk. China's August soybean imports remained historically large but showed a 12% year-on-year drop from the U.S., highlighting continued origin diversification. Early South American planting began under a wetter pattern, introducing mild bearish signals for new-crop supply.
Philippine corn production is projected to fall 14.4% to 2.08 million tonnes following typhoon damage, with El Niño conditions forecast to intensify into late 2026. The supply squeeze is accelerating feed-industry interest in drought-tolerant millet as a partial corn substitute, while European and Black Sea export prices remain broadly stable.
A series of typhoons in the Philippines has reduced July–September 2026 corn production by an estimated 14.4%, tightening regional feed grain availability and pushing up input cost risk for Southeast Asian feed manufacturers. CBOT December 2026 corn futures are trading around 529 USc/bu, while buyers consider alternative grains including millet.
Tunisia's state grains agency has purchased around 125,000 tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/tonne C&F for October–December shipment, setting a clear pricing floor for Mediterranean destinations and limiting near-term downside for Black Sea and EU export origins.
Chicago corn futures rose on 21 September 2026, driven by trader positioning ahead of US–China talks that could unlock new Chinese grain purchases and by persistent Black Sea supply uncertainties. Gains were broad-based but moderate, with the market still awaiting concrete outcomes from the summit.
Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
Pakistan's Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has tendered for 750,000 tonnes of 2026-crop milling wheat on CFR Karachi/Gwadar terms at around USD 320–325 per tonne, but the high landed cost of imports — compounded by freight, port charges, and currency weakness — is expected to support rather than ease domestic wheat prices. Global benchmark prices from Ukraine, the EU, and the US have softened modestly in September, but analysts note Pakistan's firmness is driven by internal cost and currency dynamics rather than global supply tightness.
