Soybeans and Cattle Advance While Wheat Retreats in Divergent Week for Agricultural Markets

Agricultural commodity futures recorded wide divergence in the week ending 25 September 2026, with soybeans, cotton and cattle posting gains while wheat retreated and corn and nearby hog futures were nearly unchanged, according to a weekly market analysis published by Ag Bull on 26 September 2026.

Soybeans Draw Export and Domestic Demand Support

November soybeans finished the week at $13.19 per bushel, a gain of 15½ cents. Ag Bull reported that export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totalled 582,400 metric tons (mt) in the latest reporting week, including 311,800 mt booked by China. The analysis noted that those bookings "predate the summit and should not be counted as new summit deliverables." Domestic demand also contributed: rain-delayed harvesting in parts of the western Midwest left processors paying premiums for nearby supplies, though the analysis cautioned that "those local shortages may ease quickly when fields dry."

Wheat Posts Steepest Losses

Wheat sustained the clearest declines among major grains. December Chicago soft red winter wheat ended at $7.03¼ per bushel, down 11 cents; December Kansas City hard red winter wheat closed at $7.62, down 21¾ cents; and December spring wheat fell 27¾ cents to $7.13½. Ag Bull attributed the losses to improved Plains moisture prospects, with late-week forecasts calling for "2 to 4 inches of rain across parts of the region from the Texas Panhandle to Nebraska," as well as renewed diplomatic efforts regarding the Black Sea grain corridor, which offered "another reason to trim risk premiums."

Corn Essentially Flat Amid Competing Pressures

December corn settled Friday at $5.28¼ per bushel, up just ¾ cent for the week. The University of Tennessee reported that its average corn basis weakened 4 cents as harvest supplies pressured cash markets. USDA's export sales report for the week ended 17 September showed new-crop net sales of 838,300 mt and shipments of 1.9 million mt.

Cattle Futures Surge on Tighter Supply Outlook

October live cattle climbed $2.95 for the week to $218.875 per hundredweight, while November feeders surged $13.975 to $331.975. The advance came despite the 24 September reopening of Santa Teresa, New Mexico, to Mexican cattle imports, which in principle adds feeder supply. Ag Bull noted that USDA's prior Cattle on Feed report showed August placements of 1.62 million head, down 9% from a year earlier, pointing toward reduced fed-cattle availability later. The analysis also reported that cattle organisations in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas indicated that ICE-related workforce disruptions had delayed thousands of fed cattle scheduled for shipment to processors.

Sorghum Commitments Running Far Below Year-Ago Pace

Sorghum faced a stark demand deficit. USDA data showed only 2,500 mt of net export sales for the week ended 17 September, with total 2026/27 commitments at 42,400 mt compared with 414,800 mt at the comparable point a year earlier — a decline of approximately 90%. Ag Bull quoted a 25 September milo bid from Planter's Cooperative of $4.38 per bushel, described as "90 cents under December corn futures," while noting that figure represents "one local quote, not a national average."

Hogs Hold Near Unchanged as Cash Weakens

October lean hogs ended at $78.225 per hundredweight, up only 12½ cents for the week. USDA's 24 September Hogs and Pigs report put the 1 September inventory at 74.3 million head, down 2% from a year earlier, with the June–August pig crop also falling 2%. However, the latest reported CME lean hog index stood at $82.20, with a further decline projected, constraining the futures response.

China Trade Outcome Seen as Key Variable

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Friday that Washington and Beijing had reached agreements involving selected goods, including agricultural products, with more details expected Monday, 28 September. Ag Bull described sorghum as "the cleanest test" of whether the agreement produces measurable purchase commitments, given that China has historically been the dominant buyer of U.S. sorghum and current commitments run at roughly one-tenth of last year's pace.

Upcoming Data and Calendar

Market attention was directed toward the expected release of U.S.-China agreement details on Monday, 28 September, and USDA's Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary scheduled for Wednesday, 30 September. Weekly export sales, crop progress reports and livestock processing data were also cited as near-term price drivers.