US Grain Export Sales Disappoint as Dollar Strength and Higher Prices Weigh on Demand

US export sales for corn, soybeans, and wheat for the week ended September 17 all fell short of or barely met trade expectations, according to a September 24, 2026 report from Pro Farmer, which described the results as "a bearish sign the higher dollar and higher prices could be crimping demand."

Soybean Sales Miss Expectations by Wide Margin

Soybean export sales were the most significant miss. The USDA reported net sales of 582,400 metric tonnes (MT) for the 2025-26 marketing year, primarily for China and Japan. Pro Farmer noted this was "well below expectations ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 MMT" — a shortfall of roughly two-thirds against the midpoint of the expected range. Separately, USDA reported a daily sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.

Corn and Wheat Also Soft

Corn net sales of 838,300 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year were "primarily for Japan and Mexico," and came in "at the lower end of expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT," according to Pro Farmer. Wheat net sales of 267,600 MT for 2026-27, led by Mexico and Vietnam, were "down 18% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average" and "below expectations ranging from 350,000 to 600,000 MT."

US-China Trade Truce Extended

The weak sales figures come against a backdrop of ongoing US-China trade negotiations. Pro Farmer reported that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that he and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng "agreed to extend the trade truce reached in South Korea last fall for two months, to Jan. 10." Bessent was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: "I don't know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don't know whether we will just roll the current deal."

Pro Farmer noted there is "much attention on whether China will signal a commitment to what the White House has said is a pledge to buy $17 billion in non-soybean agricultural goods on a pro-rated basis this calendar year, on top of its purported pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, 2027 and 2028." The report added that "China has been a regular U.S. soybean buyer over the past several weeks, booking more than half of its alleged commitment," but cautioned that "Beijing has never publicly affirmed the size of any purchase commitments."

Futures Market Reaction

Pro Farmer reported that corn and wheat "favored the downside overnight and are both below support," while soybeans "favored the upside after opening lower." For December corn, the report identified support at $5.25 and noted "a close below $5.28 would be bearish." November soybeans were noted to have "bounced off support overnight," with bulls "looking to hold prices above uptrend support at $13.10." December SRW wheat was described as continuing "to break lower," with support at the "psychological $7.00 mark."

Diesel Export Ban Uncertainty

Pro Farmer also flagged volatility in energy markets stemming from an internal Trump administration debate over a potential ban on US diesel exports. Energy Secretary Chris Wright was reported to have said a ban would be a "blunt tool" that "wouldn't work in terms of lowering U.S. prices." A Politico report cited by Pro Farmer said the administration was preparing a 90-day export ban, but a White House official subsequently described that report to Reuters as "not accurate." Wright was later reported by the Wall Street Journal to have said the administration "wouldn't stop all exports of diesel but would implement restrictions as part of a voluntary plan." Front-month Nymex diesel fell 3.4% to $4.7764 a gallon in response to speculation, while AAA pegged the national average road diesel price at $6.5217 a gallon, described as "near the recently set record high."