China's 2026/27 Soybean Crop Seen Stable as Quality Premiums Widen and Harvest Weather Adds Risk

China's 2026/27 soybean crop is on track to deliver broadly stable volumes, but harvest weather uncertainty and widening quality-based price spreads are reshaping the domestic market, according to a September 26 analysis published by CMB News.

Supply and Output Projections

Official projections for the 2026/27 season indicate a planted area of 10.193 million hectares, down 0.6% year on year, offset by a slightly higher yield of approximately 2,055 kilograms per hectare, up 0.8%. Total production is estimated at 20.95 million tons, roughly 0.2% above last year, continuing a run of domestic output above 20 million tons. CMB News described the baseline as "one of stable volume: neither a clear surplus nor a major deficit is expected from the new crop."

Harvest Weather Risk in the Northeast

The concentration of harvest activity in Northeast China means near-term weather is a critical variable. Meteorological services cited by CMB News indicate that during the Mid-Autumn holiday period of 25–27 September, "temperatures in key northeastern provinces are slightly below normal with periods of rain and fog, potentially slowing fieldwork and complicating drying logistics in parts of Heilongjiang and Jilin." In Jilin specifically, the period is expected to feature "slightly below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, with scattered showers particularly in the south and mountainous regions." National agro-meteorological guidance was said to highlight "increased rainfall in segments of western China to the Yangtze–Huai River autumn harvest belt, advising farmers to seize dry intervals for harvesting and rapid drying."

Price Differentiation by Quality

Domestic prices in Northeast China opened the new-crop campaign on a firm note for high-protein beans, while lower-protein supplies are expected to face pressure as the October harvest peak approaches. As of 24 September 2026, Beijing FOB export offers stood at EUR 0.83/kg for yellow organic soybeans at 99.8% purity and EUR 0.76/kg for conventional yellow soybeans at 99.5% purity, both described as "slightly above mid-September levels." CMB News reported that first large-scale domestic listings of 2026 high-protein beans "around 39% protein have been posted at elevated yuan-per-ton levels, setting a strong benchmark for early deliveries."

The source summarised the most probable domestic price pattern as "total volume stable, premium for quality, weakness in ordinary beans," with food-grade, high-protein and low-moisture soybeans expected to "command a clear and persistent premium over standard-grade beans destined for crushing."

Global Price Backdrop

CBOT soybean futures were quoted near USD 480/ton as of 24 September, with CMB News noting that futures had "risen roughly 9–10% versus August averages, trading close to the top of the range seen since late 2025." The source attributed this to "strong global demand and broader commodity support," adding that elevated import costs indirectly support domestic price expectations. CFTC data cited in the analysis show that "managed money net long positions in soybeans have expanded markedly since June, in tandem with rising futures, indicating speculative support and a market that is sensitive to any negative supply or demand surprises."

Outlook

CMB News projected that as October progresses and more low-protein beans reach market, "their prices are likely to soften under harvest pressure, even if overall domestic production is only marginally higher year on year." High-protein, low-moisture food-grade beans are expected to maintain a noticeable premium supported by food and specialty demand. The report noted that if CBOT futures remain elevated, "Chinese crushers may see limited relief on imported cost, which could eventually lend some support to domestic crushing grades as well."