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NOAA's 12 November discussion kept an El Niño Advisory, with the Niño-3.4 anomaly rising from +2.1°C in October to +2.5°C in November. The probability of a historic event fell, from 83% to about 60% for October–December 2026.
The article notes that Ivorian crop warnings and rising warehouse stocks point in different directions for cocoa.
Weather risk to West African cocoa could tighten supply later, but current stock building and the uncertain timing of any crop loss limit the near-term price impact. No tracked feed commodity is directly affected.
cocoamarkethub.comJed McNeishNov 13, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
