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NOAA's Climate.gov November 2017 update confirms La Niña conditions and gives a 65-75% chance they continue at least through the winter. It notes this would be the fifth double-dip La Niña in the historical record.
The post reviews how the CPC/IRI forecast declares La Niña.
A winter La Niña raises drought risk for South American crops and the US southern plains, which can support grain and oilseed prices into 2018. The weak strength of the event limits the expected impact.
climate.govEmily BeckerNov 8, 2017After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
