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NOAA's June 2020 ENSO update says tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have dropped rapidly over recent weeks. The CPC/IRI forecast gives about a 60% chance of neutral through summer and roughly 45% each for neutral and La Niña in fall and winter, with El Niño about 10%.
A probable shift toward La Niña later in 2020 would be relevant for Southern Hemisphere crop prospects and US weather risk. The forecast is near even odds, so it is a background factor for feed-grain pricing.
content-drupal.climate.govEmily BeckerJun 11, 2020After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
