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An EPIC article on El Niño said the coming event could reduce US agricultural production, with the Central Plains possibly drier and warmer and the Southeast wetter. Researchers noted that El Niño can also benefit some crops and growing seasons.
The article points to effects of human-caused climate change on production.
Expected US production shortfalls would be a supply risk for feed grains, but the mixed crop effects and uncertain timing limit the near-term price signal.
epic.uchicago.eduMay 5, 2023After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
