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USDA agricultural meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña is fading and neutral conditions are the favoured outcome from March through the rest of the year. He expects more episodic cold outbreaks in the Midwest and Plains in early spring, and notes USDA's forecast of record corn yields of 181 bushels per acre.
A neutral pattern usually means fewer extreme weather swings, which supports the USDA's large crop outlook and weighs on prices. Early spring cold snaps are a minor offsetting risk to planting.
farmprogress.comBen PotterMar 3, 2025After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
