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NOAA's April outlook gives a 25% chance of a very strong El Nino and a 50% chance of a strong event later in 2026. Southern Plains drought relief depends on how quickly El Nino develops, with the Pacific Northwest a concern for summer and fall.
Possible drought relief for the US Plains is a bearish factor for US wheat and corn risk premiums, while uncertainty about timing keeps some support in place.
agweb.comAgWebMay 1, 2026After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
