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The WMO's 'Prepare for El Niño' release, dated June 2, repeats the 80% chance of El Niño in June to August and about 90% persistence to November. It forecasts above-average temperatures nearly everywhere for June to August and urges preparedness by governments and climate-sensitive sectors.
The release mainly reinforces expectations of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, which keeps weather risk priced into feed grains and oilseeds. It does not add a new supply shock on its own.
wmo.intWorld Meteorological Organization WMOJul 1, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
