
As of April 16, US corn planting stood at 6% versus 12% a year earlier and a 9% average, but markets were not concerned because farmers can plant quickly. December corn traded near $3.86, close to its 2017 low, and forecasters still see a better than 50% chance of El Niño.
Corn use for ethanol reached record highs over the winter.
Slightly late planting is not yet a price threat, but record ethanol grind supports corn demand and makes a late-season weather scare more consequential.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.