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An analysis piece notes that about 80% of Brazil's corn is grown as a second-season safrinha crop planted right after soybean harvest. It cites NOAA's estimate of a 75% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest since 1950 during October through December, the soybean planting period.
Delayed soybean planting could push safrinha corn planting past the low-risk window.
A late safrinha crop is more exposed to weather stress during flowering and grain fill, which could tighten Brazilian corn and feed supplies and support prices.
southernagtoday.orgBruno PintoOct 14, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
