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An SciDev article by Esther Ngumbi urges African governments to prepare for the next El Niño, citing a WMO projection of a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming in mid-to-late 2017. It notes El Niño can bring either drought or floods depending on region, and that the 2016 event caused severe food insecurity.
The article is a policy call for preparedness rather than a supply event, with limited direct price impact; the El Niño risk it cites is outdated by later models that show lower odds, so it has little effect on feed grain prices.
scidev.netJul 11, 2017After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
