
A market column says a La Niña event could bring warm, dry weather to the US Midwest this summer, following the current El Niño. NOAA gives a 62% chance of La Niña from June to August.
Subsoil moisture is low after several years of below-average rainfall, so drier spring weather could again require timely rain for strong yields.
Dry Midwest conditions threaten corn and soybean yields, which would tighten supplies and support feed grain and meal prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.