Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 14, 2024El Niño Ends, La Niña Looms - AgWeb-3.2%
• Mar 28, 2024El Niño to La Niña-2.0%
• Mar 14, 2025Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer - AgWeb+6.8%
• Jan 14, 2022La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb-0.1%
• Jan 21, 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+0.8%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 14, 2024El Niño Ends, La Niña Looms - AgWeb-2.4%
• Mar 28, 2024El Niño to La Niña-1.0%
• Mar 14, 2025Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1.6%
• Jan 14, 2022La Niña Conditions Likely to Continue into Spring - AgWeb+3.6%
• Jan 21, 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1.4%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Nov 10, 2016November 2016 La Niña update: Hello, lady! | NOAA Climate.gov+1.5%
• May 24, 2023The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb-2.4%
• May 19, 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+3.0%
• Mar 31, 2026La Niña has ended, El Nino likely to emerge around August, says Australian Met body - The HinduBusinessLine-0.7%
• Aug 26, 2026El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)+5.4%