
NOAA expects La Niña to fade and ENSO-neutral conditions to develop within a month and persist through the northern summer. Nutrien's Eric Snodgrass says near-average conditions do not guarantee normal weather, with growing drought concerns for spring and summer.
Persistent drought risk during key growing months raises the chance of lower Midwest yields, which tends to support corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.