Maxar Weather expects a weak La Nina during most of the Southern Hemisphere spring and summer, with little El Nino risk through early next year. Soil moisture is below normal in central Brazil, and drier-than-normal conditions are expected in southern Brazil and Argentina in November.
Dryness in Brazil and Argentina during planting could stress early corn and soybean growth, supporting South American supply concerns and prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.