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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says La Niña has ended and neutral conditions will persist until at least autumn. All models forecast warming toward El Niño levels by about August, with some showing thresholds reached as early as May.
El Niño-linked drought risk to Indian monsoon rains and Australian crops would tighten rice, wheat and pulse supply later in the year. Price impact remains a forecast-based premium rather than a current supply loss.
thehindubusinessline.comSrikrishnan PCMar 31, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
