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Bloomberg reports that La Niña has formed and could disrupt farm output across South-East Asia, South America and Australia. It cites the 2010-11 episode, when world food prices hit records, and notes soybeans, corn, rapeseed and wheat are exposed.
The potential for drought in Argentina and Brazil and floods in Australia and Asia adds upside risk to grain and oilseed prices, especially if the event strengthens.
thehindubusinessline.comBloombergSep 11, 2020After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
