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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and Japan's Meteorological Agency have declared El Niño watch, giving a 50% chance of the event developing in the second half of 2023. The US Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño forming in July-September and strengthening, while the WMO urges caution due to the spring predictability barrier.
A developing El Niño raises risk of drought in Southeast Asia, India and Australia, which could support palm oil, rice and wheat prices later in the year.
thehindubusinessline.comSubramani Ra MancombuMar 14, 2023After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
