
Soybean prices in Chicago surged to a near seven-year high of $14.44 a bushel on March 8, 2021, due to excess rain in Brazil and dryness in Argentina. Indian soybean prices in Madhya Pradesh were trading above the government minimum support price.
South America produces nearly half of global soybeans, so the supply problems support world soybean and meal prices. Higher prices may also encourage Indian farmers to expand oilseed acreage later in the year.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.