
Global palm oil production is expected to rise by 6 million tonnes this year after 2016 output fell due to El Niño. Southeast Asian yields dropped to 3.26 tonnes per hectare in 2016 from 3.62 in 2015, and Indonesia is forecast to produce 36.5 million tonnes, up 3 per cent.
Recovering output after the El Niño-driven shortfall adds supply to the market and is bearish for palm oil prices, though demand growth of about 7 per cent a year limits the downside.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.