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Malaysia's palm oil production is likely to rise in 2024 as more plentiful labour and maturing plantations offset the expected impact of El Nino, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The government view points to steady supply despite the weather risk.
Higher Malaysian output next year would add to global vegetable oil supply and limit upside in palm prices, though El Nino risks remain.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.