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Indonesia's palm oil output is expected to rebound in 2017 from a weak 2016, with projections of 33 to 35 million tonnes of crude palm oil. Better weather and expanded acreage are behind the forecast, though residual drought from El Niño persists in some areas.
A larger Indonesian crop would add supply to the world's largest palm oil exporter and put downward pressure on palm oil prices.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.