Malaysian plantation consultants expect crude palm oil prices to fall about 12% in 2018 as inventories build in Malaysia and Indonesia. They cite the absence of weather extremes and a possible weak La Nina supporting strong supply growth, especially in the second half of the year.
Rising palm oil stocks and expected output growth point to softer palm oil prices, and a weaker palm complex lowers costs for feed fats.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.