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The Malaysian Palm Oil Council projects 2024 crude palm oil production to rise year on year, helped by adequate labour supply. It expects the El Nino-driven hot, dry spell to affect yields mainly in the later part of 2024.
Higher expected output eases supply tightness, which is bearish for palm oil prices, though later-year dryness could limit the gain.
After 29 past bearish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.