Analyst Thomas Mielke expects global palm oil output to rise by six million tonnes in 2017 as trees recover from El Niño damage, with Indonesia seen at 35 million tonnes and Malaysia at 19.85 million. He said prices peaked near RM3,300 a tonne in early 2017 and the setback should be moderate while stocks remain small.
A recovering crop supports a gradual palm oil price decline, but tight stocks limit the downside in the near term.
After 29 past bearish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.