
Industry players are set to meet in Indonesia to discuss palm oil outlook, with weather a key topic. Analysts expect global palm output to rise by about six million tons next year, mostly from Indonesia and Malaysia.
Prices may soften from April and May if production rebounds.
A recovery in palm production after El Nino-related losses would add supply to vegetable oil markets. Whether demand can absorb the extra output will determine how far prices fall.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.