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The IEA's November Oil Market Report expects global supply to average about 105 million barrels a day in Q4 2026, roughly 1.7 million above demand. It reversed its earlier forecast of a year-end deficit as Gulf crude exports recovered to about 82% of pre-war volumes.
A swing from deficit to surplus removes the tightness that supported prices and points to downward pressure on crude and related fuel prices into year-end.
economymiddleeast.comElias Al HelouNov 13, 2026After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
