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The IEA October Oil Market Report estimates global oil demand rose 750 kb/d year on year in 3Q25 and forecasts annual demand growth of about 700 kb/d in 2025 and 2026. Global supply rose to 108 mb/d in September, with OPEC+ output up 1 mb/d, and is set to rise 3 mb/d in 2025.
Refinery runs fall to a seasonal low in October.
Supply growth well ahead of subdued demand points to a surplus that weighs on crude and diesel prices. Lower energy costs ease transport and processing expenses for feed producers, while softer biofuel economics reduce support for oilseed and corn demand.
iea.orgOct 14, 2025After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
